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Efeitos De Uma Desoneração Tributária Na Economia Brasileira Em Cenários De Criação Da Área De Livre Comércio Das Américas (Alca)

Listed author(s):
  • Pereira, Matheus Wemerson Gomes
  • Teixeira, Erly Cardoso
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    O objetivo desse artigo é determinar os impactos da criação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA), a partir de uma desoneração tributária, na economia brasileira. Para isso, foram analisados diversos cenários que contam, além da eliminação das tarifas ao comércio entre os países do continente americano, com redução de 10% dos impostos indiretos que incidem sobre o consumo, sobre os insumos intermediários e sobre a produção brasileira. O modelo do GTAPinGAMS é usado como instrumental analítico, aplicado à versão 6.0 do banco de dados do GTAP. Os resultados indicam que, em todos os cenários de ALCA, a redução dos impostos indiretos em 10% aumentou a competitividade, promoveu o crescimento e o bem-estar do Brasil e elevou a receita tributária. O crescimento da economia variou de 0,17% a 0,31% e os ganhos de bem-estar, medidos pela variação equivalente, atingiram US$ 1,10 bilhão a US$ 2,03 bilhões.------------------------------------------------------The objective of this study is to determine the effects of the creation of FTAA stemming from a tax exemption in the Brazilian economy. Four different scenarios were analyzed taking into account the elimination of tariffs on imports among the member countries in the FTAA agreement. Other scenarios consider a 10% reduction in the indirect taxes. The GTAPinGAMs is used as an analytical tool, applied to the GTAP database version 6.0. The results show that for all scenarios of FTAA, the reduction of indirect taxes increase competition, promote growth and the welfare in Brazil, with increase in tax collection by the government. The growth of the economy ranges from 0.17% and 0.31% and gains of welfare, measured by the equivalent variation from US$1.10 billions and US$2.03 billions.

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    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 109126.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109126
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