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Um Estudo Econométrico Do Mercado Brasileiro De Celulose, 1969-2005

Author

Listed:
  • Soares, Naisy Silva
  • Silva, Marcio Lopes da
  • Valverde, Sebastio Renato
  • Lima, Joao Eustaquio de
  • Adame, Kaio Henrique

Abstract

O SEGMENTO DE CELULOSE E PAPEL CONTRIBUI DE FORMA SIGNIFICATIVA PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA. O CONHECIMENTO DA ESTRUTURA DO MERCADO DE CELULOSE É FUNDAMENTAL PARA FINS DE PLANEJAMENTO DA PRODUÇÃO, COMERCIALIZAÇÃO E PREVISÃO PARA O SETOR. O PRESENTE TRABALHO TEM COMO OBJETIVO PRINCIPAL ESPECIFICAR E ESTIMAR A OFERTA E DEMANDA BRASILEIRA DE CELULOSE, BEM COMO A OFERTA E A DEMANDA DE EXPORTAÇÃO, NO PERÍODO DE 1969 A 2005. OS RESULTADOS OBTIDOS, USANDO O MÉTODO MÍNIMOS QUADRADOS DE DOIS ESTÁGIOS (MQ2E), MOSTRAM QUE A OFERTA E A DEMANDA INTERNA DE CELULOSE, BEM COMO A OFERTA E A DEMANDA DE EXPORTAÇÃO SÃO PREÇO-INELÁSTICA. A DEMANDA INTERNA É INELÁSTICA COM RELAÇÃO À RENDA. JÁ A DEMANDA DE EXPORTAÇÃO É ELÁSTICA COM RELAÇÃO À RENDA. A OFERTA INTERNA É MAIS SENSÍVEL A VARIAÇÕES NO PREÇO DAS MÁQUINAS E EQUIPAMENTOS. A OFERTA DE EXPORTAÇÃO É SENSÍVEL A VARIAÇÕES NA PRODUÇÃO E NO CONSUMO INTERNO E A DEMANDA DE EXPORTAÇÃO, A VARIAÇÕES NA RENDA DOS PAÍSES IMPORTADORES.-----------------------------------------------------THE WOOD PULP AND PAPER SECTOR CONTRIBUTES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY. THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE WOOD PULP MARKET STRUCTURE IS IMPORTANT FOR PRODUCTION PLANNING, COMMERCIALIZATION AND FORECAST FOR THE SECTOR. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF THE PRESENT STUDY IT TO SPECIFY AND ESTIMATE THE DOMESTIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WOOD PULP, AS WELL AS THE EXPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNCTIONS, IN THE PERIOD FROM 1969 TO 2005. THE RESULTS, USING THE TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES METHOD (TSLS), INDICATED THAT DOMESTIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WOOD PULP, AS WELL AS THE EXPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNCTION EXPORTATION ARE PRICE INELASTIC. THE DOMESTIC DEMAND IS INELASTIC IN RELATION TO INCOME. THE EXPORT DEMAND IS ELASTIC IN RELATION TO INCOME. THE DOMESTIC SUPPLY IS MORE AFFECTED BY CHANGES IN MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT PRICES. THE EXPORT SUPPLY IS AFFECTED BY CHANGES IN PRODUCTION AND DOMESTIC DEMAND AND THE EXPORT DEMAND IS AFFECTED BY CHANGES IN INCOME OF IMPORTING COUNTRIES.

Suggested Citation

  • Soares, Naisy Silva & Silva, Marcio Lopes da & Valverde, Sebastio Renato & Lima, Joao Eustaquio de & Adame, Kaio Henrique, 2008. "Um Estudo Econométrico Do Mercado Brasileiro De Celulose, 1969-2005," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil 109122, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:109122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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