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Os Impactos Da Demanda Por Crédito De Carbono Sobre O Mercado De Certificações De Reduções De Emissões No Brasil

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  • Alvim, Augusto Mussi
  • Santin, Maria Fernanda Cavalieri De Lima

Abstract

o objetivo deste estudo é estimar o tamanho do mercado potencial de Certificados de Reduções de Emissões, CREs, no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto, para o período de 2008 a 2012. A partir desta estimativa, avaliam-se os efeitos causados pelo aumento da demanda dos CREs em possíveis cenários, no que refere à receita proveniente da comercialização dos CREs e dos investimentos afins. A metodologia utilizada, denominada Identidade Kaya, consiste no cálculo das emissões derivadas de fatores tais como: a evolução da renda per capita, o crescimento populacional, a intensidade energética e a intensidade de dióxido de carbono, em cenários que tentam captar a adoção de tecnologias de menor potencial poluidor. O trabalho aborda os principais aspectos do Protocolo de Quioto e da metodologia necessária para a implantação de um projeto de Mecanismos de Desenvolvimento Limpo, MDL. Por fim, são identificadas as atividades promissoras no Brasil. A conclusão principal é que existe uma possibilidade de ganhos financeiros significativos, aliado à conservação ambiental. Ficou evidente a importância de haver políticas públicas que estimulem o investimento em MDL para que o Brasil possa participar plenamente do mercado mundial como ofertante de certificados de reduções de emissões e também para implementar uma política que contribua para reduzir as emissões de gases.----------------------------------------------The main objective of this study is to estimate the size of the potential market of Certified Emission Reductions, CERs, as defined by Kyoto Protocol, for the period of 2008 to 2012. Based on this estimate, the effects caused by the increase of the demand of the CREs in possible scenes are evaluated. The methodology used, called Kaya Identity, consists of the emission calculation derived from factors such as the evolution of per capita income, the population growth, the energy intensity, and the intensity of carbon dioxide in scenes that try to get the adoption of less potential polluting technologies. The paper is also concerned, first, with discussing aspects of Kyoto Protocol and the necessary methodology for the implantation of a project of Clean Development Mechanism, CDM; and with the identification of promising activities in Brazil. The main conclusion is that there is a possibility of significant financial profits, allied to the environment conservation. It was evident the importance of having public politics that stimulates the investment in CDM so that the Country can fully participate in the worldwide market as a supplier of Certified Emission Reductions and also implement a climatic change policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvim, Augusto Mussi & Santin, Maria Fernanda Cavalieri De Lima, 2008. "Os Impactos Da Demanda Por Crédito De Carbono Sobre O Mercado De Certificações De Reduções De Emissões No Brasil," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil 108975, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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