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Impactos Dos Subsídios Agrícolas Dos Eua Na Expansão Da Produção E Exportações Do Agronegócio Brasileiro

Author

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  • Figueiredo, Adelson Martins
  • Oliveira, Maria Aparecida Silva
  • Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos

Abstract

No Acordo Agrícola da Rodada Uruguai e posteriores rodadas de negociações multilaterais foram propostas metas de redução de subsídios à agricultura. Mesmo assim, o que tem ocorrido é uma elevação dos volumes de recursos concedidos aos produtores agrícolas dos EUA. Salienta-se que os subsídios à produção agrícola nos EUA geram distorções no comércio mundial desses produtos, na medida em que reduzem suas importações e aumentam os excedentes exportáveis. Assim, o objetivo da presente pesquisa é avaliar os impactos dos subsídios à produção agrícola dos EUA – concedidos através dos Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) – sobre o crescimento do agronegócio brasileiro. Para isso foi utilizado um Modelo Aplicado de Equilíbrio Geral (MAEG) para a economia dos EUA e do Brasil. A partir desse modelo, utilizando a hipótese de Market Share constante, simularam-se quatro cenários de redução de subsídios norte-americanos: redução no valor médio anual e no montante total de subsídio concedido no período de 2002 a 2007, em conjunturas otimistas e pessimistas. Dos resultados obtidos pode-se inferir que as mudanças na produção dos EUA seriam, em geral, negativas e do Brasil positivas. Isso ocorreria, pois a queda na produção do agronegócio dos EUA diminuiria os excedentes exportáveis desse país, gerando maiores oportunidades de expansão do agronegócio em países concorrentes, como o Brasil. Portanto, haveria queda nas exportações agroindustriais dos EUA e queda nas importações, possivelmente devido à desaceleração do crescimento. O Brasil, por sua vez, apresentaria elevação das exportações e importações agroindustriais em todos os cenários, mas seria gerado saldo positivo para a balança comercial desse setor. Conclui-se que a redução da produção agroindustrial nos EUA devido à redução dos subsídios agrícolas geraria oportunidades para o crescimento do agronegócio brasileiro e promoveria maior competitividade das exportações.-------------------------------------------Into the agricultural agreement of the Uruguai round and the forthcoming rounds of multilateral negociations were proposed marks for decreasing the subsidies to agriculture. Even so, what has been occurring it is an increasing of the volume of granted resources to the agricultural producers in the USA. It is pointed out that the subsidies to the agricultural production into the USA create distortions into the worldwide trade. Thus, the objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of subsidies to the agricultural production of the USA granted through the Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP), upon the Brazilian agribusiness growing. For this, it was used an Computable General Equilibrium Model to the economy of Brazil and the USA. Since this model, using a hypothesis of constant Market Share, four sceneries for the reduction of the American subsidies were simulated: reduction of the medium yearly and of the total amount of subsidies granted during the period from 2002 to 2007, into optimist and pessimist situations. We can infer from the results gathered that the changes on the USA production would be negative in general, but positive for Brazil. This would occur, because the downing of production in the USA agricultural trade would diminish the exportable excess of this country, creating more opportunities for the agricultural trade expansion for the competitors countries like Brazil. Therefore, there would be a decline on the agro-industry exportations and importations of the USA. Brazil, on the other hand, would present an increasing of the agro-industry exportations and importations in all the sceneries, but it would be created a positive credit balance to the balance of trade of this sector. It is concluded that the reduction of the agro-industry production in the USA due to the reduction of agricultural subsidies would create opportunities for the Brazilian agricultural trade and would promote more exportations competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Figueiredo, Adelson Martins & Oliveira, Maria Aparecida Silva & Santos, Maurinho Luiz dos, 2008. "Impactos Dos Subsídios Agrícolas Dos Eua Na Expansão Da Produção E Exportações Do Agronegócio Brasileiro," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil 108883, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108883
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