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DINÂMICA DA AGRICULTURA NO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO ENTRE 1990-2005: Uma análise através do modelo “shift share”

Listed author(s):
  • Felipe, Fabio Isaias
  • Maximiano, Maria Lucia
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    Este trabalho tem o objetivo de determinar quais foram as fontes de crescimento da produção agrícola no Estado de São Paulo entre 1990 e 2005. Para essa análise utilizou-se o modelo econométrico denominado “shift-share”, também conhecido como estrutural-diferencial. A análise foi dividida em subperíodos, tendo como objetivo abordar o comportamento da produção agrícola em diversos momentos da economia brasileira. Os fatores que explicam a evolução da produção nos subperíodos determinados foram os efeitos área, rendimento e localização geográfica. As alterações na área cultivada por sua vez foram subdivididas em efeito escala e substituição. A mandioca foi a cultura que apresentou maior crescimento da produção agrícola entre 1990 e 1995, o que se deu em razão do acréscimo na área cultivada. No segundo sub-período analisado (1995 a 2000), os ganhos de produção ocorreram com maior intensidade na cultura da banana (27,20% a.a) também em decorrência de acréscimos na área cultivada. E no último subperíodo (2001 a 2005), a maior crescimento da produção ocorreu no trigo (61,31% a.a). --------------------------------------------This study aims to determine what were the sources of growth of agricultural production in the state of Sao Paulo between 1990 and 2005. For this analysis used is the econometric model called "shift-share", also known as structural-differential. The analysis was divided into sub periods, with the aim address the behavior of agricultural production in various stages of the Brazilian economy. The factors that explain the evolution of production in certain sub periods were the effects area, income and geographic location. Changes in the area cultivated in turn were subdivided into effect and scale replacement. The cassava was the culture that had higher growth in agricultural production between 1990 and 1995, which occurred because of the increase in the area cultivated. In the second sub-analysis period (1995 to 2000), the gains in production occurred with greater intensity in the culture of banana (27.20% pa) also due to increases in the area cultivated. And in the last sub period (2001 to 2005), the largest growth in production occurred in the wheat (61.31% pa).

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    Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108832.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2008
    Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108832
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