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A Programação Matemática Positiva Como Instrumento De Calibração E Prescrição Dos Modelos De Oferta Agrícola

  • Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa
  • Carvalho, Maria Leonor da Silva
  • Henriques, Pedro Damiao de Sousa

Neste artigo avalia-se a capacidade de calibração e de prescrição de resultados de um modelo de oferta agrícola da Região Alentejo. A capacidade de calibração é analisada para o regime de preços e de ajudas agrícolas em vigor no ano 2000, comparando os resultados de diferentes formas de especificação da função dos custos variáveis totais do modelo de programação matemática positiva com os resultados do modelo tradicional de programação linear e com os dados estatísticos observados. Depois de calibrado, o modelo de programação matemática positiva foi utilizado na prescrição dos resultados relativos ao cenário de preços e ajudas em vigor no ano de 2004. Concluiu-se que a programação matemática positiva para além de ser um eficaz instrumento de calibração dos modelos de oferta agrícola, constitui também uma forma de prescrição de resultados. ---------------------------------------------In this paper, calibration and prescription capacity of different types of positive mathematical programming models applied to the Alentejo agricultural sector is analysed. Model results are compared in the 2000 and 2004 agricultural price and subsidies scenarios, regarding optimal combination of activities. Results allow concluding that positive mathematical programming is an efficient instrument on calibration of agricultural supply models, as well as on prescription of its results.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108610
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Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108610.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108610
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sober.org.br/
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