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Truncated sum of squares estimation of fractional time series models with deterministic trends

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  • Hualde, Javier
  • Orregaard Nielsen, Morten

Abstract

We consider truncated (or conditional) sum of squares estimation of a parametric model composed of a fractional time series and an additive generalized polynomial trend. Both the memory parameter, which characterizes the behaviour of the stochas- tic component of the model, and the exponent parameter, which drives the shape of the deterministic component, are considered not only unknown real numbers, but also lying in arbitrarily large (but finite) intervals. Thus, our model captures different forms of nonstationarity and noninvertibility. As in related settings, the proof of con- sistency (which is a prerequisite for proving asymptotic normality) is challenging due to non-uniform convergence of the objective function over a large admissible parameter space, but, in addition, our framework is substantially more involved due to the com- petition between stochastic and deterministic components. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality under quite general circumstances, finding that results dif- fer crucially depending on the relative strength of the deterministic and stochastic components.

Suggested Citation

  • Hualde, Javier & Orregaard Nielsen, Morten, 2017. "Truncated sum of squares estimation of fractional time series models with deterministic trends," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274702, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:274702
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
    2. Javier Hualde & Peter M Robinson, 2003. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unkown Integration Orders," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 449, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. P. M. Robinson & J. Hualde, 2003. "Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unknown Integration Orders," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1727-1766, November.
    4. Johansen, Søren & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 51-66, September.
    5. Robinson, Peter M. & Hualde, Javier, 2003. "Cointegration in fractional systems with unknown integration orders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2223, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Robinson, P.M. & Iacone, F., 2005. "Cointegration in fractional systems with deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 263-298.
    7. Yuzo Hosoya, 2005. "Fractional Invariance Principle," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 463-486, May.
    8. Hualde, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 2003. "Cointegration in fractional systems with unkown integration orders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58050, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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