Consequences of national food system transitions in Ethiopia for ending hunger and achieving healthy diets

Countries have committed themselves to achieve Sustainable Development Goals, such as Zero Hunger (SDG2), and Life on Land (SDG15). Many countries are still far from reaching the targets as expressed in these goals. To help steer these developments, the necessary transitions in the food system of a country for achieving healthy and affordable diets for all people need to identified, while minimizing negative environmental impacts. The transition to healthy diets means a change in the demand for and consumption of various agricultural commodities. This change in demand will drive price changes, both for consumers and at the farm gate. This affects agricultural incomes, domestic food production and patterns of trade. Changes in domestic food production will in turn alter land use patterns, fertilizer use and other agricultural inputs which have environmental consequences with respect to land demand for agriculture, nutrient emissions, greenhouse gas emissions and irrigation water demand. In this study we investigate a number of aspects of this challenge by linking a biophysical (BIOSPCAS) and an economic (MAGNET) model, and simulating consequences of a transition to a healthy diet in Ethiopia in 2030. The impacts of economic and environmental consequences of a transition to a healthy diet in Ethiopia are compared with the SSP2 (O’Neill et al. 2017) business as usual future projections of the Ethiopian economy and agricultural system in 2030 with the current patterns of consumption, to illustrate the differences and highlight the impacts of the transition. Further as domestic food prices are linked to the global marketplace for agricultural commodities, we explore a scenario where the rest world makes the transition to a healthy diet as well. This global transition will affect the demand for Ethiopian exports and the prices for imports facing farmers and consumers.