Ireland and the Brexit: What are the Impacts for the Irish Agri-Food Sectors?

The United Kingdom (UK) is a highly important agri-food export market for Ireland: More than 40% of Irish agri-food exports (2013 to 2015 average) where destined for the UK. For particular products, such as poultry meat or cheese, these shares even exceeded 50% by far. Moreover, Ireland’s farms are highly dependent on subsidies (subsidies amounted to more than 60% of agricultural factor income on average over 2010 to 2013) of which the largest part comes from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget. These facts, together with other large issues like, e.g., the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and the cross-border businesses there, illustrate the tight relationships between Ireland and the UK and therefore the importance of the Brexit negotiation outcomes for Ireland. Integrating a detailed representation of the EU CAP instruments into the GTAP model and database and combining it with a single-country CGE model and Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Ireland high in detail on the agricultural and food sectors and corresponding policies, we are evaluating several Brexit scenarios taking potential agreements on the trade relations and changes in the CAP budget and complementing policy adaptations into account. The CGE modelling system explicitly depicts the trade and budget interdependencies between Ireland, the UK and the EU. The results shed light on the shifts in the sectoral structure, impacts on household incomes, on the government and the economy as a whole and allow identifying actors who are in particular need of support during the transition phase.