Sustainable consumption and population dynamics in Brazil

This paper analyses sustainable consumption in Brazil, highlighting the consumption profile of sustainable products by income level and household composition. Preference data collected in 2012 by the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment, and expenditure data from the 2008-2009 Brazilian Household Budget Survey were used in a Computable General Equilibrium model to project scenarios of demand for sustainable products and its implication for production, employment, and household income. Household income growth, economic growth, population dynamics, productivity, and energy efficiency gains were explicitly modelled. A dynamic path for consumption preferences towards organic products was also included. Our simulation assumes that preference for organic consumption increases from 2016 to 2050, varying among income deciles. By 2050, Brazil would experience an overall increase in organic consumption, despite differences between poor and rich households regarding preference and share of income spent in organic products. This result is the consequence of the combined effect of income growth (faster for poorer households) and preference change (faster for richer households). The projected consumption path suggests that increase in organic consumption may generate positive effects for all households, including the poor, by increasing production, employment demand in sectors were the poor are more likely to be employed, and family income.