Analysis of Long-Term Global Social Change: Using Universal Social Accouting Matrices (SAMs) in the International Futures (IFs) Modelling System

This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of long-term, global social development and performance. The paper describes a specific effort within the larger modelling project, namely the creation and use of universal social accounting matrices (SAMs) for dynamic analysis of social performance in countries around the world. The universal social accounting matrices (SAMs) have been developed within an existing integrated global model named International Futures (IFs) that contains: a cohortcomponent representation of demographic systems; a multi-sector, general equilibriumseeking representation of economies; a module of formal education at primary, secondary, and tertiary levels; and other subsystems. The IFs system also facilitates the development and comparison of multiple scenarios for underlying variables and subsystems as disparate as the rate of change in systemic multifactor productivity, the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and the attention that societies give to different levels of education. The net for data sources and methods for generating the matrices and creating forecasts for a wide range of countries was cast wide, but a few sources were of particular importance. These include the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the World Bank (especially its World Development Indicators), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Specific issues that such a modelling system can help investigate include the unfolding pension crises of many developed countries and the effort to strengthen basic social safety nets or social protection systems throughout the developing world. The modelling system is also being structured so as to provide insights into changing income distributions within and across countries.