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The Impact of WTO Accession on Taiwan's GHG Emission: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

Author

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  • Hsu, Shih-Hsun
  • Lin, Kuo-Jung
  • Li, Ping-Cheng
  • Huang, Chung-Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the WTO on Taiwan's international trade, industrial structure, energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission during 2001-2005. Two large applied general equilibrium models, GTAP and TAIGEM, are used in this paper to simulate China's and Taiwan's WTO accession. TAIGEM (TAIwan General Equilibrium Model), a dynamic, multisectoral, applied general equilibrium model of the Taiwan’s economy is developed specifically to analyze climate change response issues. In this paper we use GTAP to provide the global context for the WTO accession, and TAIGEM to assess the detailed impacts on Taiwan. It shows that the comparative advantages of China and Taiwan are in different economic sectors. In average, Taiwan's economic growth will increase yearly at 0.4% above the baseline projection for the period 2001-2005. Service sector is expected to grow. Its share of real GDP will increase from 62.97% to 64.46%. In contrast, agriculture and industry sectors are the losers. In particular, sectors related to fossil fuel, cement, and iron and steel will contract due to less international competitiveness. With reduction of coal consumption and increasing share of gas and oil consumption, CO2 emission level is expected to be at the level of 296.6 million tons that is higher by 1.6 million tons than the baseline projection level at 295.0 million tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Shih-Hsun & Lin, Kuo-Jung & Li, Ping-Cheng & Huang, Chung-Huang, 2001. "The Impact of WTO Accession on Taiwan's GHG Emission: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," Conference papers 330935, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330935
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