IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ncrthr/18990.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keep Up The Good Work? An Evaluation Of The Usda'S Livestock Price Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Sanders, Dwight R.
  • Manfredo, Mark R.

Abstract

One step-ahead forecasts of quarterly live cattle, live hog, and broiler prices are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and the ability to categorize price movements directionally or within a forecasted range. Results suggest USDA price forecasts are not optimal. Broiler price forecasts are biased, and all the forecast series tend to repeat errors. While the USDA forecasts are more accurate that those of a univariate AR(4) time series model, the evidence suggests that live cattle forecasts could be improved with a composite forecast. However, the USDA correctly identifies the direction of price change in at least 70% of its forecasts. Prices fall within the USDA's forecasted range 48% of the time for broilers but only 35% for hogs. Finally, there is some evidence that the USDA's price forecasting accuracy has improved over time for broilers, but it has gotten marginally worse for hogs.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "Keep Up The Good Work? An Evaluation Of The Usda'S Livestock Price Forecasts," 2003 Conference, April 21-22, 2003, St. Louis, Missouri 18990, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrthr:18990
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18990/files/cp03sa01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.18990?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ncrthr:18990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.