IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ncrfou/19020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Futures Prices To Forecast The Season-Average U.S. Corn Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hoffman, Linwood A.

Abstract

A model is developed using basis values (cash prices less futures), marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast the season-average U.S. corn farm price. Forecast accuracy measures include the absolute percentage error, mean absolute percentage error, squared error, and mean squared error. The futures model forecasts are compared to USDA's WASDE projections. No statistically significance difference was found between the futures model forecasts and the season-average price projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Futures model forecasts are reliable, and timely.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffman, Linwood A., 2004. "Using Futures Prices To Forecast The Season-Average U.S. Corn Prices," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19020, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19020
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19020/files/cp04ho01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evelyn V. Colino & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfou:19020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dauiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.