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Scalable Targeting of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys and Community Knowledge?

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Listed:
  • Aiken, Emily
  • Ashraf, Anik
  • Blumenstock, Joshua E.
  • Guiteras, Raymond P.
  • Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq

Abstract

Advances in digital data and algorithms are enabling new approaches to poverty targeting at scale. Using rich data from Bangladesh and Togo, we compare an algorithmic approach based on machine learning and mobile phone data to status quo targeting with proxy means tests and community-based targeting. While proxy means tests are most accurate, algorithmic targeting is more cost effective for programs where the budget is small relative to the number of households screened. Combining our estimates with global program data, we estimate that phone-based targeting would be the welfare-maximizing approach for up to 30% of countries’ social assistance programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Aiken, Emily & Ashraf, Anik & Blumenstock, Joshua E. & Guiteras, Raymond P. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2025. "Scalable Targeting of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys and Community Knowledge?," CEnREP Working Papers 376262, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccewp:376262
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.376262
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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