IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nccc10/285320.html

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices Using Multivariate Bayesian Machine

Author

Listed:
  • Ticlavilca, Andres M.
  • Feuz, Dillon M.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to perform multiple predictions for agricultural commodity prices (one, two and three month periods ahead). In order to obtain multiple-time-ahead predictions, this paper applies the Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine (MVRVM) that is based on a Bayesian learning machine approach for regression. The performance of the MVRVM model is compared with the performance of another multiple output model such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Bootstrapping methodology is applied to analyze robustness of the MVRVM and ANN.

Suggested Citation

  • Ticlavilca, Andres M. & Feuz, Dillon M., 2010. "Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices Using Multivariate Bayesian Machine," 2010 Conference, April 19-20, 2010, St. Louis, Missouri 285320, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc10:285320
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285320
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285320/files/confp06-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285320?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), pages 1-14, July.
    2. William G. Tomek & Robert J. Myers, 1993. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 181-202.
    3. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Traub, Lulama Ndibongo & Jayne, T.S., 2008. "The effects of price deregulation on maize marketing margins in South Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 224-236, June.
    2. Katsushi S. Imai & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha, 2020. "The Covid-19 Impact on Agricultural Market Arrivals and Prices in India: A Panel VAR Approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Dec 2020.
    3. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Park, Hwanil & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2007. "The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37565, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Park, Timothy A. & Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar L., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income-Enhancing And Risk-Reducing Properties Of Marketing Practices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Lamb, Russell L., 1997. "Why are estimates of agricultural supply response so variable?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 357-373.
    9. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Modhurima Dey Amin & Syed Badruddoza & Oscar Sarasty, 2024. "Comparing the great recession and COVID‐19 using Long Short‐Term Memory: A close look into agricultural commodity prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1406-1428, December.
    11. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
    12. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Du, Wen & Wang, H. Holly, 2004. "Price behavior in China's wheat futures market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229.
    14. Traub, Lulama Ndibongo & Jayne, Thomas S., 2006. "The Effects of Market Reform on Maize Marketing Margins in South Africa: An Empirical Study," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25635, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Vasciaveo, M. & Rosa, F. & Weaver, R., 2013. "Agricultural market integration: price transmission and policy intervention," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149887, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    16. Alain McLaren, 2015. "Asymmetry in Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 415-433, May.
    17. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    18. Christopher Barrett, 1997. "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 225-236.
    19. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    20. Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Park, Timothy A., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Emerging Methods for Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19045, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nccc10:285320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.