The Performances of Probability-Based Grain Marketing Strategies

The performances of probability-based corn marketing strategies are compared for alternative corn price forecast probability information sources for the 1992-1994 time period. Price forecast probability information from Extension grain price forecasts, grain options premiums, and price forecasting models are used. The probability-based decision rules are designed to "trigger" preharvest sales when certain probability and price level goals are met. The grain marketing strategies are based on the probability of prices increasing or decreasing, of proftability goals being attained, or of other combinations of crop condition and proftability criteria being met. During the 1992-1994 period, an average futures price $2.58-$2.60 per bushel was received by the highest performing strategies, compared to an average harvest time futures price of $2.24. The performance of these strategies during this period was dependent on whether or not preharvest sales were triggered during the key yield determination period of mid-June through July.