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An Econometric Model for Forecasting the Manufacturing Grade Price of Milk in U.S. Markets

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  • Bailey, Ken
  • Gallivan, Steve

Abstract

The object of this paper is to develop a forecasting tool that will accurately predict the M-W price series. The model reflects the Secretary's final decision for the new M-W estimate which consists of the base month M-W lagged one month plus an update price formula. The statistical model in this report estimates the base month M-W as a function of dairy commodity prices. The latter are used as a proxy for the gross wholesale value of milk used in cheese and butter/nonfat dry milk plants in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The statistical results indicate the model is accurate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bailey, Ken & Gallivan, Steve, 1995. "An Econometric Model for Forecasting the Manufacturing Grade Price of Milk in U.S. Markets," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285643, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285643
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285643
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