Impactos de Mortalidade de Adultos Rurais no Rendimento, Bens, e Pobreza em Moçambique: Análise com Dados do Painel do TIA

Using a three-year panel of 4,058 Mozambican households surveyed in 2002 and 2005, we measure how prime-age (PA) adult mortality due to illness affects rural household size and number of adults, crop and non-farm income, total household income, and asset levels. 1) Effects of PA mortality vary considerably by the gender and household position of the deceased individual as well as by region. Results show that when PA males die, households are less able to bring in new adult members, are more likely to lose access to livestock and landholdings, and to suffer income effects. Households in the North/Center with a PA male head death average 25% loss in crop income; in the South, PA male death is associated with an 88% reduction in non-farm income. 2) In spite of these income reductions, net income per adult equivalent (AE) among households with a PA death is not significantly different from those households without a death. Households with a death are also not any more likely than other households to have net income in 2005 below the expenditure-based poverty line. 3) Nevertheless, asset losses, demographic and income shifts all point to vulnerability to future income and asset shocks, especially households with a PA male death.