How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Will Affect the Food Security Situation in Malawi: Implications for Malawian Policy Response

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is very likely to have an impact on Malawi that could be detrimental, but steps can be taken now to soften the effects. Even before the war, food and fertilizer prices were near, and likely to surpass, historical highs. Global fuel prices will rise, putting upward pressure of fuel, food, and fertilizer costs in Malawi. Food prices will also rise on the global markets due to supply shocks, especially for wheat and sunflower. As staple grains and edible oils are highly substitutable and often inputs for other foods, this will raise global prices for most foods, which will further raise food costs in Malawi. Rising fuel and food prices will put upward pressure on fertilizer prices due to higher costs of production and increased demand for fertilizers. Fertilizer supply will also be directly impacted, as the countries involved in the conflict are major producers of chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium used in agricultural production. Actions can be taken now to mitigate the effects on Malawian livelihoods, including changes to the Affordable Inputs Program, promoting alternatives for wheat and maize, and facilitating local production of edible oil crops, such as sunflower and soya.