Abschätzung des zukünftigen Flächenbedarfs von Photovoltaik-Freiflächenanlagen

In this working paper, an estimation of the possible future demand for agricultural land for the expansion of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems in Germany is developed. For the estimation, current political goals as well as different energy scenarios are considered in order to determine the demand for installed PV capacity in a fully transformed energy system. The required PV power can be installed on different areas (e.g. rooftops, agricultural area). The number of installations on agricultural land depends on many factors and can develop very differently in the future. In addition, the future demand for land is influenced by the specific land use, i.e. how much land is needed per installed capacity. All three factors are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The most probable development is assumed to be the current political target of 215 GWp installed capacity by 2030 and for a fully transformed energy system 400 GWp installed capacity by 2040, a share of 50 % on agricul-tural land and a specific land use of 1.4 ha/MWp. Based on this, the land use for a transformed energy system (year 2040) is 280,000 ha. This corresponds to a share of 1.7 % of the currently agricultural used area. The range of all scenarios considered is between 0.3 % and 4 %, which shows the high uncertainty of the forecast.