Auswirkungen der Freigabe bestimmter ökologischer Vorrangflächen auf Flächenumfänge, Produktionsmengen und Umwelt im Jahr 2022

This Working Paper contains the content of a statement made by the Thünen Institute for BMEL. In March 2022, the Federal Ministry for Food and Agriculture (BMEL) asked the Thünen Institute to estimate the implications of allowing agricultural production on ecological focus areas (EFA) in 2022. This estimate should cover the expected area, production volumes and environmental impacts. The background to the request is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to massive price increases and concerns about the future supply situation for important agricultural products. To this end, four different options were considered in more detail: Allow • fodder production from 01.07.2022 on the EFA category fallow • fodder production the EFA category catch crops • any production, but without the use of plant protection products on the EFA category fallow • any production, but without any management restriction on the EFA category fallow The estimates show that, under favourable conditions, a maximum of 1.1 million tonnes of cereals could be additionally produced in 2023 through the individual options for allowing production on EFAs in Germany. For the year 2022, a production effect of 0.6 million t of cereals can be expected at the very most. The highest production potential exists if catch crops are released for use (if energetic use is possible) or if normal production with the use of plant protection products and fertilisers is allowed to take place on the EFAs. However, this last option in particular would have considerable negative ecological effects.