Holzmarktmodellierung - Szenarienbasierte Folgenabschätzung verschiedener Rohholzangebotssituationen für den Sektor Forst und Holz

Different interest groups have different demands and expectations regarding the use of our forests and its resources. Conflicting claims imply various options of action for forest future management. Depending on the forest management scheme, coniferous and non-coniferous wood supply is likely to differ in the short, medium, and long term. Changing wood supply will have consequences for the domestic woodworking industry. Within the framework of the joint research project „WEHAM-Szenarien“ (funded by the BMU and BMEL) a systematic policy impact analysis was undertaken. Within the scope of this study, three different combinations of forest management and wood use scenarios were considered. The objective of the present study was to quantify potential impacts of alternative forest treatment options and timber supply volumes on the wood products markets. For this purpose, a global wood products market model was applied. The partial equilibrium model simulated supply, demand, and price developments for 180 countries and 16 products. The amount of wood available for wood production under each scenario was derived from the results of the forest management and wood use scenarios. As expected, the wood supply potential substantially differs between the scenarios. The available raw wood was exogenously divided into energetic and material use potentials. It was also crucial to differentiate between coniferous and non-coniferous wood species. The basic distinction of the wood types reveals that the wood-based market may not face an abundance of raw wood in the decades under consideration. Rather, the German woodworking industry might face shortages in domestic raw material availability and may be forced to innovate or trade in order to meet raw material demands. The modelling results are always a product of the modelling environment and the underlying assumptions. However, our results highlight that both domestic coniferous and non-coniferous roundwood production for material use would increase until 2050 if not limited by the harvesting potential imposed by the forest management scenario. On the other hand, the raw wood potentials were not always completely used by the market. The production of non-coniferous wood resources lagged behind the potential in two out of three scenarios. Once harvested the major share of raw wood was demanded by the domestic woodworking industry. Independent of the domestic production level, the demand for coniferous wood outstripped the domestic supply in each of the three scenarios considered. Thus, the trend of increasing imports of coniferous imports continued in all scenarios. However, the import volumes varied in dependence of the production capacities in the woodworking sector. Thus shortages in domestic raw wood were mainly offset by a reduction of the production capacities while the output of the woodworking industry increased together with increasing raw wood availability for material use. Despite significant differences in raw wood production, the domestic consumption of semi-finished wood-based products was similar across three scenarios. However, increasing production outputs of the woodworking industry did not lead to an increasing use of wood products in the domestic markets. The additional production was largely exported. Either way, rising domestic demand for wood products in end-use sectors could also lead to an increase in future demand for semi-finished wood products in Germany. The other way round, limiting the supply of domestic raw wood could imply adverse socio-economic effects, which may include a reduction in the production activities of the domestic woodworking sector or an increase in imports of raw wood and wood products.