Thünen-Baseline 2017 – 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2017 – 2027 as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2014 - 2016. In the Thünen Baseline 2017 - 2027, sluggish demand on world agricultural markets in combination with a stronger Euro implies that the real prices of most agricultural commodities will decline. One exception is dairy products, where strong export demand supports the producer price for milk in Germany. As a consequence, the income of many farms is projected to be lower than in the base period 2014-2016. However, a sensitivity analysis based on a scenario which assumes a depreciation of the Euro highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors depend on macroeconomic developments.