The sensitivity of the income of French farms to a reorientation of aid under the future post-2023 CAP

This article provides an overview of French agricultural incomes over the decade 2010-2019, notably of their heterogeneity according to production types, size and location. It illustrates their dependency on CAP budgetary support. On this basis, it analyses the sensitivity of incomes to different scenarios that modify the repartition of CAP direct aids. The first type of measures aims specifically at modifying the distribution of direct aids and incomes. Four simulations are performed corresponding to a measure in favour of small farms, alternative payment modalities for coupled aids to beef and dairy cattle, the full internal convergence of the basic payment per hectare, and a reinforcement of the redistributive payment on the first hectares. The second measures pursue climatic and environmental objectives but have also redistributive impacts. The first scenario corresponds to a transfer of 15 % of the budgetary envelope of the first pillar to climate and environmental measures and support for organic farming in the second pillar. The second scenario implements an eco-scheme targeted on the maintenance of permanent grasslands and the reduction of pesticide use.