Proceedings: 3rd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TURKEY’S LIVESTOCK IMPORTS

Turkey is a country with high young population rate. Also, after the internal conflicts that arose in neighboring countries, flocks of people have immigrated to Turkey. High population growth caused high food demand. Also, most of the population in Turkey is Muslim, and it is creating extra demand in the feast of sacrifice. During recent years, because of these reasons, the supply of meat could not meet the demand, and high demand increased the meat prices with high costs. The government of Turkey, therefore, started to import live animals to reduce meat prices. In this study, for the period 2005M01- 2018M01, the relationship between real effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate volatility and Turkey’s livestock imports was examined using bounds test, symmetric and timevarying symmetric causality tests. In this study, unit root analysis was performed using ADF and PP tests. The results of ADF and PP unit root tests indicated that the parameters were stationary at different levels and that none of the parameters was stationary at the 2nd level. According to bounds test, the F-statistic value calculated at a significant level of 5% and 10% was found less than bottom limits, the cointegration relation between the variables was not determined. As a result of the bounds test, it was concluded that there was no long-term relationship between the variables. According to the results of a Hacker-Hatemi-J causality test, a causality relationship was not found from volatility, reel effective exchange rate and industrial production index to Turkey’s livestock exports. Timer varying causality analysis confirmed this result for a significant part of the time interval. However, a causality relationship was determined for some periods from volatility, reel effective exchange rate and industrial production index to Turkey’s livestock exports. In this study,for the period 2005M01- 2018M01, the relationship between real effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate volatility and Turkey’s livestock imports was examined using bounds test, symmetric and time-varying symmetric causality tests.