Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM MODEL

Following the agricultural policies already led in the Moroccan context, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP) launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereal’s supply. Nevertheless, little attention has been given to the demand side. This paper intends to perform a quantitative analysis of the demand of five main cereals: (Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice) through an econometric approach. In this respect, we opt for the linear version of the flexible model Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) procedure is employed to estimate regressions, by using the Eviews software as econometric tool. The data needed to estimate the demand system equations are annual series, covering the period from 1980 to 2015. Econometrically, the results of tests of stationarity, structural stability and low separability of preferences, the Durbin and Watson statistics, the Student's test values, as well as the signs of the calculated elasticities, show the respect of the conditions of the theoretical plausibility of nominal and real estimates. Our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.