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Seasonal Variation in Prices of Live Cattle Negotiated in Brazil’s Futures and Spot Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sereno, F.L.
  • Silva, I.S.
  • Botelho Filho, F.B.

Abstract

Considering the importance of the agricultural hedge and of the futures market as tools to facilitate the decision making concerning live cattle commercialization, our aim in this research was to analyze the seasonal variation in the prices of live cattle futures negotiated in the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA), as well as to compare it with two other commercialization places of the spot market. To calculate the Seasonal Index and the Deseasonalized Index we used the methodology of the 12-month Centralized Mobile Geometric Average. The results have shown a similar and regular pattern of seasonal variation throughout the past few years among the markets. The Seasonal Index has indicated two well-defined periods, signaling the first semester as the period with the largest offer and the second as period with the smallest offer. The month of November consisted in the summit of the upward movement of prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sereno, F.L. & Silva, I.S. & Botelho Filho, F.B., 2015. "Seasonal Variation in Prices of Live Cattle Negotiated in Brazil’s Futures and Spot Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212259, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212259
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212259
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