IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/hebarc/53180.html

The Impact of Biofuels Policy on Agribusiness Stock Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Tepe, Fatma Sine
  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Hennessy, David A.

Abstract

Corn markets are important for many industries, including the seed, fertilizer, meat production/processing and agricultural machinery sectors, all of which are highly concentrated. Oligopoly theory suggests that corn input and field equipment suppliers likely benefit from policies that support corn markets, such as U.S. biofuels policy, while meat companies are likely adversely affected. Employing a linear two-factor (S&P 500 and corn prices) equilibrium asset pricing model, this study investigates the impact of biofuels policy on U.S. agribusiness and food processing firm stock prices. Conditional heteroskedasticity in stock returns is accounted for using a GARCH(1,1) model. Corn price increases are found to have positive effects on excess stock returns for seed, fertilizer and machinery companies, while the impact on meat companies is negative. The results may be interpreted as evidence that crop input suppliers gain from U.S. biofuels policy while meat processors lose.

Suggested Citation

  • Tepe, Fatma Sine & Du, Xiaodong & Hennessy, David A., 2009. "The Impact of Biofuels Policy on Agribusiness Stock Prices," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 53180, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hebarc:53180
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.53180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/53180/files/09-WP_497.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.53180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    2. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    3. Hyun Joung Jin & Jang-Chul Kim, 2008. "The effects of the BSE outbreak on the security values of US agribusiness and food processing firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 357-372.
    4. Calum G. Turvey & Linda Lake & Erna van Duren & David Sparling, 2000. "The relationship between economic value added and the stock market performance of agribusiness firms," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 399-416.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. David Sparling & Calum G. Turvey, 2003. "Further thoughts on the relationship between economic value added and stock market performance," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 255-267.
    8. Barrett E. Kirwan, 2009. "The Incidence of U.S. Agricultural Subsidies on Farmland Rental Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 138-164, February.
    9. McElroy, Marjorie B & Burmeister, Edwin, 1988. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory as a Restricted Nonlinear Multivariate Regression Model: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 29-42, January.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    12. Spencer Henson & Mario Mazzocchi, 2002. "Impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy on Agribusiness in the United Kingdom: Results of an Event Study of Equity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 370-386.
    13. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    14. Quirmbach, Herman C, 1988. "Comparative Statics for Oligopoly: Demand Shift Effects," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 451-459, August.
    15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baines, Joseph, 2015. "Price and Income Dynamics in the Agri-Food System: A Disaggregate Perspective," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157992.
    3. Baines, Joseph, 2014. "The Ethanol Boom and the Restructuring of the Food Regime," Working Papers on Capital as Power 2014/03, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism.
    4. Baines, Joseph, 2015. "Fuel, Feed and the Corporate Restructuring of the Food Regime," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 295-321.
    5. Valdes, Rodrigo, "undated". "What drives the regional integration of agribusiness stocks? Evidence in worldwide perspective," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258265, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Khalfaoui Rabeh, K & Boutahar Mohamed, B, 2011. "A time-scale analysis of systematic risk: wavelet-based approach," MPRA Paper 31938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Brandon Schaufele & David Sparling, 2011. "Regulation and the financial performance of Canadian agribusinesses," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 201-217, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Conditional coskewness and asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-119, January.
    2. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1252-1272.
    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Muyi Li & Nga T. H. Nguyen & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2017. "On Asymmetric Market Model with Heteroskedasticity and Quantile Regression," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 155-174, January.
    4. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market: Evidence from the Eurozone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5787-5795, December.
    5. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    6. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    7. Fatema Alaali, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: Evidence from UK Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 418-432.
    8. Stefano D'Addona & Mattia Ciprian, 2007. "Time Varying Sensitivities On A Grid Architecture," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 307-329.
    9. Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rehim Kılıç, 2025. "Linear and nonlinear econometric models against machine learning models: realized volatility prediction," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    12. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-79.
    13. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    14. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    15. Konstantinos Drakos, 2009. "Cross-Country Stock Market Reactions to Major Terror Events: The Role of Risk Perception," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 16, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2001. "Downside Risk and the Momentum Effect," NBER Working Papers 8643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    18. Onur Enginar & Kazim Baris Atici, 2022. "Optimal forecast error as an unbiased estimator of abnormal return: A proposition," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 158-166, January.
    19. Konstantinos Drakos, 2009. "Big Questions, Little Answers: Terrorism Activity, Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 8, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Ioannis D Vrontos & Loukia Meligkotsidou & Spyridon D Vrontos, 2011. "Performance evaluation of mutual fund investments: The impact of non-normality and time-varying volatility," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(4), pages 292-307, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:hebarc:53180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.