Is There a Latin-American Debt Crisis Building Up in Eastern Europe? A Comparative Analysis

The paper reports on an analytical comparison between the foreign debt build-up that preceded the 1982 debt crisis in Latin America and the current debt accumulation process taking place in Eastern Europe. In the whole, Eastern Europe's debt position seems more sustainable than Latin America's in the early 1980s. While the former is equally indebted and shows higher country concentration (around Russia), greater potential for fiscal impact, and no superior macroeconomic environment, its debts are less globally significant, have better repayment terms, are supported by better repayment capacities (in turn due to larger trade openness and virtually no capital flights), and are accumulating at a slower pace in a much more favorable international economic situation (faster growth in World-wide output and trade, and low and declining interest rates). This sets Eastern Europe apart from Latin America in the early 1980s but, of course, does not mean that its indebtedness is sustainable.