A window of opportunity? Understanding silvopasture adoption of grassland-based cattle farms through the Multi-level Perspective

European grassland-based cattle farms (GBCF) are facing increasing pressures from climate change, biodiversity loss, and economic uncertainty. Agroforestry practices, such as establishing silvopastoral systems, offer potential to strengthen the resilience of these farms. However, the enablers and barriers to adopting silvopasture on European dairy and beef GBCF remain under-researched. This study addresses this gap by appraising how perceived opportunities and risks, together with policy and structural conditions, shape farmers’ adoption decisions in the context of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023–2027 reforms in Germany. Using the multi-level perspective framework and drawing on ten semi-structured expert interviews and a survey of 187 farms that graze cattle, we find that macro-level pressures are increasing farmers’ willingness to adopt innovations under uncertainty. Our results further suggest that silvopasture adoption under the new CAP scheme is driven by a mix of economic and intrinsic motivations, particularly among farms that graze cattle. Key adoption barriers include high management complexity, long time horizons until direct financial returns from trees materialize, knowledge deficits, and policy distrust. By highlighting how the agroforestry diffusion process and farmers’ decision-making are embedded in broader socio-technical and policy contexts, this study advances the applied sustainability transitions literature and contributes to a deeper understanding of silvopasture adoption mechanisms in Europe.