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Resilience of Brazil’s Soybean Supply Chain: Structural Breaks, Climate Shocks, and Regional Disparities

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  • de Jesus Souza, Gilvan
  • da Silva, Aline Veronese

Abstract

This study investigates the resilience of Brazil’s soybean supply chain to climatic and economic shocks by identifying structural breaks in production, yields, and price trends from 2006 to 2024. Using econometric techniques such as Bai-Perron multiple break tests, as well as stationarity diagnostics (ADF, CUSUM), the analysis reveals that climate induced disruptions can be key drivers of volatility in soybean prices and yields. Four structural breaks were detected in October 2008, June 2012, February 2016, and November 2020, aligning with global crises, severe droughts, and supply chain disruptions. Results highlight strong regional disparities: Southern states (Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná) exhibit increasing vulnerability to droughts and reduced resilience, while the Central-West (notably Mato Grosso) demonstrates adaptive capacity supported by investments in irrigation and climate smart agriculture. These findings emphasize the need for region specific adaptation strategies and policies that integrate climate risk management, infrastructure, and sustainable production practices. This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001.

Suggested Citation

  • de Jesus Souza, Gilvan & da Silva, Aline Veronese, 2025. "Resilience of Brazil’s Soybean Supply Chain: Structural Breaks, Climate Shocks, and Regional Disparities," 2025 International Congress, August 26-29, 2025, Bonn, Germany 369136, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae25:369136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.369136
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