Sensitive Agricultural Products in the EU under the Doha Round

EU agricultural products are examined by tariff lines at eight digit level to reveal the sensitive agricultural products in the EU after further tariff reductions in the Doha Round. These products are butter, skim milk powder, beef meat, poultry meat, pig meat, white sugar, wheat, barley, and maize. A spreadsheet model is used as an analysis tool to complement the various modelling approaches in identifying the sensitive agricultural products of the EU. The spreadsheet projection model is a simple forecasting model that uses a set of projection values from other models to predict possible outcomes. The sensitivity of EU agricultural products is analysed by using various exchange rates (USD 0.90 to 1.50 per Euro), different tariff reduction formulas (according to the EU proposal, WTO draft proposal, and US proposal), and the separate tariff-cut limits in the Draft formula and US formula. The results demonstrate that cereals such as wheat, barley, and maize are the most resilient to the erosion of border protection due to further reduction in tariffs in the projected Doha Round. In contrast, poultry meat has the weakest border protection in the projected Doha Round. The examined EU agricultural products are very sensitive to the fluctuations of exchange rate. In the projected Doha Round, there are no sensitive agricultural products in the EU if the Euro is very weak - USD 0.90 per Euro. On the contrary, a very strong Euro (USD 1.50 per Euro) will create the greatest amount of sensitive products in the projected Doha Round.