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Agricultural Bankers’ Expectations of Farmland Price Changes and Asset Price Bubbles

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  • Kuethe, Todd H.
  • Oppedahl, David
  • Hubbs, Todd

Abstract

When the market price of an asset exceeds its fundamental value, rational expectations suggest that agents should expect market prices to fall. This equilibrating relationship is tested using an unbalanced panel of responses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's quarterly Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1993Q1 - 2018Q2. Empirical results suggest that agricultural bankers expect farmland prices to increase, even when current market prices cannot be justified by underlying fundamentals. Thus, agricultural bankers' short-term farmland price expectations are not consistent with eficient farmland markets. This is the first study of direct, disaggregated farmland price expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuethe, Todd H. & Oppedahl, David & Hubbs, Todd, 2019. "Agricultural Bankers’ Expectations of Farmland Price Changes and Asset Price Bubbles," 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany 290464, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa165:290464
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.290464
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    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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