Economic Modelling and the National Strategy for Vocational Education and Training

In 1994, the Australian National Training Authority (ANTA) was established by agreement between the Commonwealth, State and Territory governments. Central to the agreement is the National Strategy for Vocational Education and Training (VET) which is organized around the four main themes of responsiveness, quality, accessibility and efficiency. To promote efficiency in the allocation of training resources, ANTA and a number of State government agencies responsible for VET planning take into account employment forecasts generated using the MONASH model of the Australian economy. To promote responsiveness to the needs of industry, a network of industry training and advisory bodies (ITABs) has been set up. The ITABs' responsibilities include the development of "industry-credible, high-quality industry training plans as frameworks for identifying training needs in each industry, and for considering resource requirements". In this paper we review some of the issues that arise in reconciling the Information produced at these diverse levels of planning. In particular, we consider the role of the MONASH forecasting system as a planning framework for vocational education and training, and the caveats that must be borne in assessing the performance of the system in this role.