Long-term food demand in Asia and implications for Australian agriculture

Food consumption in Asia is projected to increase significantly toward 2050, with consumption patterns shifting from traditional diets oriented around starchy staples to more varied diets with larger quantities of higher-value and higher-protein foods. Although food production in Asia is also expected to increase, it will not be able to meet the growth in Asian consumption of many food products. In Japan and the Republic of Korea, growth in food consumption is projected to be limited through to 2050 because of projected declining populations and modest future income growth. The most significant rise in food demand is expected to occur in China toward 2050. The rise in food consumption in China will be characterised by significantly higher demand by urban consumers for high-value foods such as dairy products, beef, sheep and goat meat, fruit and vegetables. For rural consumers in China, growth in consumption of high-value commodities is also projected, but the increases on average are expected to be smaller than from urban households. India is one of the largest consumers and producers of grain in Asia and has a self-sufficiency policy. By 2050, India is projected to become a significant net importer of fruit, vegetables and dairy products. For the ASEAN (Association of SE Asian Nations) member states as a whole, imports of wheat, beef and dairy products are projected to rise toward 2050. Vegetable and fruit consumption in the ASEAN region is projected to nearly double by 2050. Australia needs to remain competitive to meet the opportunities provided by greater Asian demand for food. Apart from the role governments will play in reducing market barriers, contributions from the private sector will also be important. Strong working relationships with supermarkets and hypermarkets in Asia will facilitate food exports.