The Pass-Through of 2025 Trade Policies to the U.S. Beef Market

In 2025, U.S. beef prices surged by 16.4% (19.3% for ground beef), sparking widespread public debate over the role of federal trade policies in driving food inflation. This paper estimates the impact of four key 2025 trade policy changes, ranging from the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs to an expanded Argentine import quota, on final consumer prices. Using a structural partial equilibrium trade model combined with estimated pass-through rates across the U.S. beef supply chain, we estimate the effects of these policies in the short and long run. Our estimates reveal that restrictive trade policies in 2025 contribute up to 3.91% to the overall consumer beef price increase in the short run and 1.85% in the long run. These price effects are primarily focused on boneless beef due to its higher reliance on imports, with predicted increases of 8.71% in the short run and 4.76% in the long run. Our predictions are significantly lower than the actual price increases observed, which indicates that while trade policies have contributed meaningfully to beef price inflation, other factors not modeled in this paper, such as drought-induced inventory lows, remain significant drivers. Moreover, our results indicate that, in the long run, the protectionist trade policies of 2025 decreased U.S. consumer surplus by $3.95 billion, while increasing producer surplus by $1.55 billion and government revenue by $0.41 billion.