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Marginal Impacts of OBBB Provisions on ARC and PLC Payments

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  • Turner, Dylan

Abstract

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) introduced several modifications to the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs including higher reference prices, revised payment formulas, a "higher-of" provision, and expanded base acreage. This brief quantifies the marginal impact of each provision by computing payments under five policy scenarios using historical FSA data for all covered commodities from 2019 to 2025. Results indicate that the OBBB provisions would roughly triple cumulative ARC/PLC outlays relative to the 2018 Farm Bill, with formula and reference price changes accounting for the largest share of the increase. Impacts vary substantially across commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Turner, Dylan, 2026. "Marginal Impacts of OBBB Provisions on ARC and PLC Payments," ARPC Brief 401220, North Dakota State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401220
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.401220
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/401220/files/ARPC%20Brief%202026-13.pdf
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    1. Turner, Dylan, 2026. "Estimated Additional Base Acres Under OBBBA for Crop Year 2026," ARPC White Paper 388986, North Dakota State University.
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    1. Turner, Dylan, 2026. "Additional Base Acres in the Upper Midwest for Crop Year 2026," ARPC Brief 401335, North Dakota State University.
    2. Wongpiyabovorn, Oranuch & Plastina, Alejandro, 2026. "Additional Base Acres for ARC and PLC: January 2026 Update," Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) 391395, University of Missouri Columbia, Division of Applied Social Sciences.

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