What Ending Prevented Planting Buy-Ups Means for Farmers’ Insurance Costs

The scheduled elimination of the Prevented Planting (PP) buy-up option in 2027 represents a significant shift in U.S. crop insurance policy, altering how producers manage planting-season risk. This brief examines how farmers are likely to adjust their insurance choices following the loss of this targeted risk management tool, particularly in the context of expanded premium subsidies under the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Using counterfactual simulations based on Risk Management Agency data, the analysis evaluates changes in producer-paid premiums when farmers substitute higher coverage levels for the eliminated PP buy-up, holding insured acres, insurance plans, and unit structures constant. Results indicate that replacing a 5 percent PP buy-up through higher coverage levels would require substantial increases in producer-paid premiums across major crops, ranging from 14 to 29 percent nationally. Although enhanced subsidies under OBBB partially offset these increases, the relief is uneven across states and producers, depending on prevailing unit structures and historical coverage choices. Producers concentrated at high coverage levels are likely to experience higher out-of-pocket costs despite greater federal support. Overall, the findings suggest that while OBBB broadens subsidy access, it does not fully compensate for the loss of a targeted planting-season risk tool and may weaken incentives for maintaining strong insurance protection for some producers.