Understanding UK Red Meat Consumption for Health and Climate Policy: A Disaggregated Demand Analysis

Understanding UK consumer responses to meat prices is critical for health, environmental, and fiscal policy. While red and processed meat consumption remains above recommended levels for some consumers, contributing to cardiovascular disease & colorectal cancer risk, and greenhouse gas emissions, most empirical studies treat red meat as a single aggregate category, masking important heterogeneity in beef purchasing patterns. Using the data from Kantar Worldpanel data for 2013–2022, this study estimates expenditure and price elasticities for a disaggregated set of beef products, alongside lamb, pork, poultry, fish, and other meat products. A dynamic two-stage error-corrected LA/AIDS model was applied to capture gradual adjustment and long-run equilibrium relationships. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in own- and cross-price elasticities across beef products, with pronounced vertical differentiation within beef, and complex substitution and complementarity patterns across meat groups, that are obscured in aggregate models. Short-run elasticities are often smaller in magnitude than long-run elasticities, reflecting consumption inertia and gradual adjustment. Statistically significant error-correction terms confirm stable long-run relationships across both aggregate and disaggregated systems. These findings provide robust evidence to inform targeted fiscal and pricing policies aimed at promoting healthier and more sustainable dietary transitions.