Low-Carbon Transition in Chinese Agrifood Systems and Its Global Implication

Global agrifood systems must undergo a low-carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China’s agrifood emission will continue to rise, jeopardizing its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterize China's agrifood system emissions across the entire value chain, (2) project carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple scenarios, and (3) provide lessons for other developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, emissions are projected to rise slowly to 1.8 billion tons of CO₂eq by 2060 from 1.6 billion tons in 2021, driven primarily by the expansion of livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modeling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvement, adoption of low-carbon technologies, reducing food loss and waste, production structure adjustment and low-carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% by 2060 relative to the baseline, while enhancing the carbon sequestration potential to 1.8 billion tons CO₂eq annually. The latter will not only neutralize the emissions from agrifood system but also contribute to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system-wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low-carbon transitions.