From Machines to Paychecks: Social Accounting Matrix Input-Output Analysis of Mechanization and Net Employment Gains in African Food Systems

Agricultural mechanization is re-emerging as a pivotal lever for transforming AgriFood Systems, boosting productivity, and creating decent jobs in low- and middle-income economies. This study utilizes country Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Egypt, Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Malawi to quantify economy-wide effects of increased mechanization investment and identify where mechanization most effectively catalyzes output growth, labor income, and job creation. We apply SAM-based multiplier analysis to simulate +10% and +20% investment shocks, tracing direct and indirect effects on sectoral outputs and labor compensation, and aggregating GDP impacts. This approach captures cross-sector linkages like machinery, metals, energy, finance, and logistics while benchmarking near-term elasticities and diffusion pathways. GDP rises by approximately 0.33–0.91% at +10% shocks and doubles at +20%; labor compensation increases by roughly 0.21–0.71%. The largest sectoral output and labor-income gains accrue to machinery, equipment and vehicles, with strong spillovers to business and financial services. In agri-food, short-run output effects for staples are modest, while mechanization intensifies labor demand and incomes in post-harvest handling, grading/packaging, cold chain. The study recommends prioritization of a services-led mechanization strategy to take advantage of upstream job opportunities.