Farmers’ Preferences for fossil-free mineral nitrogen fertilisers: prices, production origin, climate and identity

This study examines farmers’ preferences for fossil-based and fossil-free mineral nitrogen fertilisers as part of efforts to decarbonisation agricultural inputs, using a labelled discrete choice experiment among 211 Swedish crop, dairy and mixed farmers. Fertiliser alternatives are characterised by three attributes: price, climate impact, and production origin. Preferences are analysed using a mixed logit model to capture continuous heterogeneity and a latent class choice model to identify discrete farmer segments. Results show that higher fertiliser prices reduce choice probabilities, while farmers exhibit substantial willingness to pay for fertilisers produced in European Union, United Kingdom and Norway and, in particular, in Sweden (their domestic market). Farmers continue to choose conventional mineral fertiliser over the opt-out alternative even when its climate impact increases. This indicates the central role of mineral nitrogen fertiliser in crop production rather than a preference for higher emissions. Two distinct farmer segments emerge: a larger group that trades off price with production origin and climate attributes, and a smaller group that is primarily price sensitive. In addition, social and economic identities significantly explain membership in the dominant segment, whereas environmental identity plays a more limited role. The findings reveal that farmers trade off price against production origin rather than climate impact: they are willing to pay substantial premiums for supply-security consideration (Swedish fertilisers), but not for reduced climate impact alone. The results suggest that decarbonisation policies in fertiliser markets may be more politically and economically viable when embedded within broader supply-security and preparedness frameworks rather than framed solely as climate premiums.