A Synergistic Path to Mitigation? Modeling the Environmental and Agricultural Outcomes of Sustainable Diets and Carbon Taxation in Europe

This study employs the CAPRI model to assess the single and combined effects of sustainable dietary shifts and carbon pricing in Europe on the agriculture sector, the environment, and international trade by 2035. Adopting sustainable diets reduces animal-based production and lowers GHG emissions, while a carbon tax delivers greater overall emission reductions, mainly through the adoption of mitigation technologies, with 3-NOP feed additives showing the highest mitigation potential. Dietary shifts substantially affect trade flows, as reduced domestic demand for animal-based foods lowers production but increases exports, whereas higher consumption of plant-based foods drives up imports and reduces exports. In contrast, the carbon tax reduces EU competitiveness, lowering exports of emission-intensive products and increasing imports. Regarding economic impacts, sustainable diets slightly decrease EU agricultural income with highly heterogeneous effects across regions, while a carbon tax increases income by 2.8% due to higher producer prices. The combined scenario achieves the largest GHG reductions and highlights strong environmental complementarities. Our findings suggest that policymakers can develop targeted EU strategies that promote sustainable diets and the adoption of mitigation technologies to support EU climate goals and guide a transition toward more sustainable food systems.