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Migration patterns: The complex roles of poverty and weather extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Kimsanova, Barchynai
  • Herzfeld, Thomas
  • Umirbekov, Atabek
  • Hermans, Kathleen
  • Müller, Daniel
  • Djanibekov, Nodir

Abstract

This study develops a comprehensive framework to examine the interplay between socioeconomic well-being, environmental shocks, and migration decisions by integrating nationally representative household data with climate indices. Employing a spatial multinomial logit model, we distinguish between domestic, international, and combined migration while accounting for the influence of weather extremes. Our findings reveal a non-linear relationship between well-being and migration: financial and structural barriers limit mobility for poorer households, middle-income groups exhibit the highest propensity to migrate—particularly internationally—and wealthier households favor international over domestic movement. These insights challenge deterministic climate migration narratives, highlighting the need for integrated policies that address poverty, economic mobility, and climate resilience.

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aes025:356753
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356753
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