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How does deflator choice and base year preference impact the conversion of nominal to real agricultural prices?

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  • Bird, Lewis

Abstract

This discussion paper assesses the impact of deflator choice and base year selection on converting nominal agricultural commodity prices to real prices. Using World Bank Pink Sheet Monthly Prices data from 1960 to 2024 for key commodities including palm oil, soybeans, maize, rice, and wheat, the paper compares three deflators: the US Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index and US GDP deflator. To ensure consistency, the data is converted from monthly to quarterly frequency to align with the GDP deflator series. Additionally, the paper explores the influence of base year preference by simulating different base years (2019, 2022 and 2023) and assessing their impact on real price calculations. By systematically applying these deflators and base years, the study provides insights into how methodological choices affect real price outcomes and the interpretation of long-term agricultural price trends, especially during periods of economic volatility.

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Handle: RePEc:ags:aes025:356736
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356736
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File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356736/files/Lewis_Bird_Lewis%20Bird%20-%20How%20does%20deflator%20choice%20and%20base%20year%20preference%20impact%20the%20conversion%20of%20nominal%20to%20real%20agricultural%20prices.pdf
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