The Long and Short-Run Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production in Sri Lanka

Climate change is becoming evident in Sri Lanka due to increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. As a country with an agriculture-based economy, the impact of climate change on crop production threatens food security. The present study aimed to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of climate change on rice production in Sri Lanka. In this study, we used Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models. Data for the period between 1952 and 2022 was compiled by the World Bank and the Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka. Estimated results were also validated using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR). The results of the symmetric ARDL model indicate that temperature and cultivated land area have significant long-term effects on rice production. The results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative changes in climate variables have an asymmetrical long-run impact on rice production in Sri Lanka. Positive changes in temperature and rainfall have a significant negative impact on rice production. At the same time, negative changes rainfall has a significant and positive impact on rice production. Changes in cultivated land areas, both positive and negative, have a long-term significant impact on rice production. Policymakers must comprehend both the symmetric and the asymmetric effects of climate change on rice production and implement agricultural policies that promote sustainable agricultural development and to develop improved climate risk management strategies leading to ensuring food security in Sri Lanka.