The Impact of Export Price Volatility on Market Behaviour in the International Export Market: A Case Study of Canadian and German Pork Exports in China

This study delves into the intricate dynamics of export price volatility and its impact on the market behaviour of major pork exporters, Germany and Canada, in the world’s largest pork market, China. Exporters’ market behaviour often responds to the uncertainty arising from price fluctuations by curtailing their supply; a reduction in the supply by a major exporter can disrupt the overall market supply, potentially leading to an increase in prices. However, the extent to which an exporter can leverage this increase in price depends on the responsiveness of demand to such changes. To explore these relationships, a residual demand function elasticity model (RDE) is extended to incorporate price volatilities. Prices and their volatilities are modelled using Autoregressive and GARCH models, respectively. The results of the RDE analysis of pork exports reveals strong competition among pork exporters in the Chinese pork market and indicate that price volatility affects the market power of the exporting country. This research not only contributes to the understanding of the interplay between export price volatility and market power but also provides practical insights for major pork exporters. This study helps formulate informed strategies to navigate the challenges posed by price fluctuations in the international pork market.