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Nonlinear Effects of Climate Variables on Sorghum Yield in Texas: Evidence from County-Level Panel Data

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  • Talukder, Anzalin
  • Yu, Mark
  • Adnan, K.M. Mehedi
  • Guney, Selin
  • Osei, Edward

Abstract

This study examines how weather conditions affect sorghum yield across major sorghumproducing Texas counties from 1981 to 2020. Using a county-level panel dataset and a two-way fixed-effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, the analysis evaluates nonlinear precipitation effects, degree-day temperature exposure, and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Results show a nonlinear precipitation–yield relationship, indicating that both moisture deficits and excessive rainfall reduce productivity. Higher VPD is consistently associated with lower sorghum yields, while the estimated effect of extreme heat weakens after atmospheric dryness is included. Robustness checks support the main findings, while the soil water-holding capacity test provides limited evidence of moderation. These results highlight the importance of incorporating atmospheric moisture demand into climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning for semi-arid agricultural systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Talukder, Anzalin & Yu, Mark & Adnan, K.M. Mehedi & Guney, Selin & Osei, Edward, 2026. "Nonlinear Effects of Climate Variables on Sorghum Yield in Texas: Evidence from County-Level Panel Data," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404704, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404704
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404704
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