Impact of China's "Soybean Revitalization Plan" on Soybean Trade: A Simulation Assessment Based on Structural Gravity Model

With the development of the global trading system, the international division of labor has extended beyond industry into agricultural trade. China’s soybean import dependency has surged from 40% to 83% since joining the WTO, far exceeding the global average. Concurrently, recent disruptions, including the U.S.-China trade war, public health crises, and geopolitical tensions, have driven the global supply chain toward nearshoring, friend-shoring, and localization, exacerbating global food security risks. Effectively responding to these external shocks has become a primary concern for countries. China, for example, implemented the “Soybean Revitalization Plan” as an opportunity to evaluate the impact of changing global agricultural production patterns on trade, employment, and welfare. Our results show that the plan will reduce U.S. soybean exports to China by $0.2~3.7 billion and Brazilian exports by $0.05~2.3 billion, though trade diversion will mitigate these losses, particularly for the U.S. The resulting global redistribution of trade could even enhance global welfare. If US-China negotiations fail alongside the plan’s implementation, Brazil will substantially capture the U.S. market share in China, leaving the U.S. unable to offset losses through export diversion. We conclude that major producing countries should not be overly concerned about the “Soybean Revitalization Plan,” and the U.S. should prioritize accelerating trade negotiations with China.